This study examined the effect of material recycling on the relationship between the waste amount and environmental pollution in EU-15 countries for the 1995–2019 period through panel smooth regression analysis by using the material recycling rate as the threshold variable. Based on the analysis results, the material recycling rate threshold level was estimated as 11.79. In these countries, if the material recycling rate is below the threshold level, the rise in the waste amount will increase environmental pollution. If the material recycling rate is above the thresh-old value, the rise in the waste amount will still increase environmental pollution, but the pollu-tion increase rate will decrease. With the increase in the waste amount in the long term, environ-mental pollution can only be reduced by raising the material recycling rate. For the reduction of environmental pollution, which is one of the most prioritized issues in Europe in recent years, policy makers should take measures to increase the material recycling rate by taking the results of this study into consideration and pay attention to the implementation of these measures.